RESEARCH & INTELLIGENCE

Follow the evidence.

Short explanatory guides with primary sources. Reviewed 14 November 2026. These are educational frameworks, not market forecasts.

MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Start with the balance.

Supply, demand, inventories and financial-market activity form a useful framework for analysing crude oil. An inventory change needs context: period, geography, seasonal conditions and the underlying series.

Ask: Which balance changed, over what period, and against which expectation?

Source: EIA →

PRICE METHODOLOGY

A physical assessment has a method.

Platts describes Dated Brent as a physical cargo assessment using a defined set of eligible crude streams and a Market on Close process. Readers should check the current specification before using an assessment in a contract.

Ask: Is the number a physical assessment, an exchange settlement or a delayed quote?

Source: S&P Global Energy →

MARKET STRUCTURE

Storage links today and tomorrow.

The relationship between spot and futures pricing can alter the incentive to hold inventory. Financing, storage availability and delivery costs also matter. A futures curve is not a promise of future spot prices.

Ask: Are the compared prices for matching locations and delivery terms?

Source: EIA →

RISK CONTEXT

Disruption is more than a headline.

Production interruptions, transport constraints and refinery outages can affect availability. Their price effect depends on conditions such as inventories and alternative supply. A scenario range is more transparent than a single unsupported forecast.

Ask: What changes if the disruption lasts longer or alternative supply responds?

Source: EIA →

EVIDENCE REGISTER

Read the original sources.

Publication dates below are publisher dates where available. “Undated” resources were reviewed on 14 November 2026; review does not imply continuous monitoring. No proprietary price histories are redistributed.

EIA · Undated living resource